Blue North Carolina

Early Voting ---- Breaking Records

2004-10-27T11:37:00.000-04:00

The front page of the N&O today has this lovely little story.

More than 400,000 people -- 7.3 percent of the state's total registered voters -- had cast ballots by the end of the day Monday, said Gary Bartlett, director of the State Board of Elections. The previous statewide record for early one-stop voting was 393,152 people in the presidential election of 2000.

About 500,000 voters were originally expected to cast early ballots statewide this year, but elections officials say that prediction is now almost certain to come up.

That's terrific, but election officials are saying that they still expect the lines to be really long on Tuesday. It looks like all those newly registered voters are going to case a vote. It looks like you can toss those, "Likely Voter" polls out the window. Things are wide open right now, and I don't think its possible to decipher where this is going to go.

Janet Cowell rocking web site, blog

2004-10-26T01:55:00.000-04:00

Janet Cowell, candidate for Senate 16, has raised $10,200 since she started using online fundraising. She also blogs.

Cowell is running for the Dem. open seat left vacant by Eric Reeves.

Ballantine-crushing and political ads

2004-10-26T01:46:00.000-04:00

New SurveyUSA numbers:

Easley: 57 (56)
Ballantine: 39 (38)
margin of error: 4

Courtesy of Eyewitness News 11 (.pdf)

Bowles and Kerry numbers not so good; down 6 and 10, respectively. Hopefully Bowles can rally -- he's got some good ads on right now. Hugh Shelton, King Burr , and the breast cancer survivor, all of which are pretty strong ads. Bowles has to pull this one out.

Speaking of ads, I love Bev Perdue's chicken ads. Thoughts?

Keever up by two!!!

2004-10-25T01:34:00.000-04:00

According to the Asheville Citizen-Times:

Keever (D): 43.5
Taylor (R): 41.2
Undecided: 15.3
moe: 4.5

ASHEVILLE - U.S. Rep. Charles Taylor slightly trails challenger Patsy Keever in a poll released Friday.

The survey conducted by the Asheville Center for Social Research at UNC Asheville found that 41.2 percent of residents polled support Taylor, 43.5 percent would vote for Keever, and 15.3 percent were undecided.

The poll involved 493 residents of Buncombe, Henderson, Haywood and Transylvania counties contacted by telephone between Oct. 11 and 21. With a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, the two candidates are in a statistical tie, said Mark West, director of the center and a professor of mass communication at the university.

NC-5: Winston-Salem Journal pulls quick one, endorses Harrell!

2004-10-22T23:37:00.000-04:00

Jim Harrell is gaining momentum, picking up the conservative Winston-Salem Journal's endorsement.

Given the poll numbers we reported here last week, Harrell could be poised to pull off something crazy.

The Republican primaries for the 5th District congressional seat were so ugly, so offensive, so remote from the issues important to the district that many Republicans were heard wishing for a moderate, sensible candidate to support.

Now they have one. Disaffected Republicans can join Democrats and unaffiliated voters in voting for the Democratic candidate, Jim Harrell Jr. The Journal strongly endorses Harrell for the 5th District seat.
Ideally, a moderate Republican would have emerged to run for the seat that went up for grabs when Richard Burr decided after 10 years in the House to run for the Senate. After all, the district as now configured has a comfortable Republican majority.

Unfortunately, most of the candidates in the GOP primary seemed to think it necessary to stake out positions far to the right of the political spectrum and to emphasize emotionally charged, divisive social issues rather than talking about how to rebuild the district's economy or what to do about the rising costs of health care.

But Jim Harrell offers a moderate, bipartisan approach that ought to appeal to voters of any political affiliation. He has worthwhile ideas about how to promote a good business climate and help the district adapt to the changing economy. As a practicing dentist in Elkin, he has a medical professional's insights into practical ways to reform the health-care delivery system.

Help Jim.

"Time for a change", says Charlotte Observer

2004-10-19T02:34:00.000-04:00

My hometown paper, the Charlotte Observer, joins the N&O in endorsing the 44th President of the United States, John F. Kerry. The whole of it is contained below. This is for two reasons. One, it pretty much sums up the case against Bush. Two, the Observer requires a registration, which is kind of a pain in the ass. Read on, though.

When a president is seeking re-election, the contest is inevitably a referendum on his service.

There is much to like about George W. Bush. After 9-11, he provided strong leadership, rallying and reassuring the nation in a splendid speech, then invading Afghanistan to strike at al-Qaida and topple the Taliban. The recent elections there are evidence of fragile but encouraging progress.

He pushed public schools to be more accountable through his No Child Left Behind program -- an effort pioneered in some states, including North Carolina. He slashed taxes and helped create a prescription drug benefit for Medicare. He assembled a Cabinet that looks like America, with blacks, Hispanics and women in key roles.

President Bush is not afraid to make hard decisions, whatever the political cost. He is a man of solid, enduring values who approaches his job with prayer, cherishes his family and loves his nation. Those qualities will earn him many votes.

Why change?

Why, then, do we think change is needed?One further quality is indispensable for the chief executive: judgment. We think George W. Bush has made the wrong choices on too many matters important to our country. We will focus on three: Iraq, the tax cuts and the deficit.

Iraq: We do not fault the president for leading America into war. Sometimes nations must act in uncertain situations because failure to do so could be disastrous. If President Bush had reason to believe the Iraqis had weapons of mass destruction -- almost everyone agreed they did -- and he believed those weapons might wind up in the hands of anti-American terrorists, he had to act.

The Observer's editorial board supported his belief that Iraq must be dealt with -- by force, if necessary -- but not the way he chose to do it. While one part of the Bush administration sought support from the U.N. and major allies, another scorned the U.N. and scoffed at some allies' concerns. Better diplomacy might have produced a surer judgment about Iraq's weaponry, a broader coalition and a better post-invasion effort. If U.N. inspectors had been given more time in Iraq, what they learned might have prevented our reliance on intelligence reports that in every major way were wrong -- not only about the presence of weapons of mass destruction, but also about what might happen after we removed Saddam.

The Bush administration planned well for the battle but not for what came next. Our forces were ill-prepared to oversee the transition of power. Hesitation and confusion at the top permitted bloodshed and chaos on the streets. Miscalculations about how and where to crack down allowed the rise of the resistance that's responsible for the beheadings, bombings and street-by-street combat that costs dearly in lives and money and keeps Iraq's future in doubt. The scandal at Abu Ghraib, our inept post-war effort and our reliance on unreliable intelligence have shaken world confidence in America's competence.

Tax cuts: President Bush is not to blame for the recession or for job losses. No president is. But he could have done more to help the jobless, particularly with health care and additional benefits. And he might have used his tax cuts to do more for the Americans who need help most.

The president's tax cuts, combined with increased federal spending, did help the economic recovery. But the Americans benefiting most from the tax cuts over time will be the very wealthiest. At an $800-a-plate dinner in New York in 2000, candidate Bush remarked, "What an impressive crowd: the haves, and the have-mores. Some people call you the elite, I call you my base." He smiled as he said it, but he has served them well. Had he chosen to, he could have used some temporary as well as permanent tax cuts, put more money in the hands of the struggling middle class and spurred job growth by funding badly needed infrastructure improvements in cities and states.

The deficit: Under President Bush, Washington embarked on what the American Conservative Union called "a national spending spree of historic proportions." By cutting taxes while letting federal spending soar, Congress was guilty of gross fiscal irresponsibility. Democrats as well as Republicans made it happen, and President Bush went along. Ronald Reagan vetoed 22 spending bills during his first three years in office. President Bush is on track to become the first full-term chief executive in 175 years to not veto a single bill.

In a report published in January, the conservative Heritage Foundation said:

"Federal spending's drag on the economy is now over $20,000 per household -- its highest level since World War II -- and growing. Mandatory spending reached 11 percent of GDP for the first time ever. The recent Medicare drug bill represents a huge long-term burden on the fiscal health of this country. It was a massive entitlement expansion passed with no financing program to pay for it and is estimated by CBO to cost well over $2 trillion over a 20-year period. The final check for this program will come due just when Social Security and Medicare run out of money.

"Spending has increased twice as fast under President Bush as it did under President Clinton. From 2001 to 2003 total spending grew by 16 percent. Certainly the terror attacks of 9-11 placed additional demands on spending for homeland security, a strong defense, and rebuilding New York. However, this accounts for less than half of the new spending that has occurred since 9-11. What was so sorely lacking during this time was self-discipline required to balance fiscal priorities."

Recent polls find more than 50 percent of Americans think our nation is headed in the wrong direction. We agree that on many scientific policies, the environment, poverty, international relations, judicial appointments and civil rights, America needs a new course.

We're concerned, too, about how the Bush White House works. Some say it is a rigid, secretive place where on some vital issues dissenting opinions are not welcome and criticism is not heard. To some, it may be reassuring that a president can survey the past three-plus years and see no mistake worth mentioning. To us, it's alarming.

Why Sen. Kerry?

Why do we think John Kerry would do better?

We believe Sen. Kerry, like President Bush, would have gone after al-Qaida in Afghanistan and removed the Taliban government that gave them sanctuary. The course President Bush is now following in Iraq is difficult but necessary, and we think Sen. Kerry would follow it.

Sen. Kerry might have used a more deliberative approach to Iraq that could have found there was no immediate danger and thus offered options for dealing with the threat. Pre-emptive war is always an option, but rarely should be the first one. Promoting democracy abroad is the right goal; conquest isn't often the best way to do it.

The president is right, too, in saying we must combat terrorists where they are. Military force is an important part of that effort. So is working with other nations to disrupt communications, training and financing and make sure terrorists find no havens. We believe Sen. Kerry understands that.

The president calls Sen. Kerry a waffler. Some of that is nonsense, a slick misinterpretation of the astonishing number of votes a legislator takes over the years on motions and amendments and proposals that mean little when taken out of context. But some of it reflects an evolution in John Kerry's thinking as changes in circumstances lead to changes in response. To change your mind easily and often is a sign of frivolousness; to never change it is a sign of brain death. Too much certainty can be a dangerous thing.

Sen. Kerry, like President Bush, plans some ambitious initiatives during the next four years. Unlike President Bush, he promises to launch only those programs that can be funded without increasing the deficit. He promises no tax increases for households with incomes less than $200,000. Will he be fiscally responsible? We're not sure. We are sure President Bush hasn't been. Few in Washington have much credibility in that area.

Uncertainty accompanies every change. But Sen. Kerry is an intelligent man of proven courage and calm judgment who, unlike President Bush, would be dealing with a Congress controlled by the opposition, which tends to moderate actions by both parties. With deepest respect for President Bush's accomplishments, we think it's time for a change.

Winston-Salem Journal declines to endorse Bush

2004-10-18T19:33:00.000-04:00

They don't endorse Kerry, either. But they are more than displeased with Bush's record.

The Journal has favored Republican presidential candidates in part out of a belief that Republicans are more dedicated to fiscal and personal responsibility and trying to control the growth of government. We also believe that wisely defending the country from threats at home and abroad is one of the most important jobs of the federal government, and in the past we have judged Republican candidates more able to carry out this role.

Since Richard Nixon ran against Hubert Humphrey in 1968, the Journal has endorsed every Republican candidate for president. That list includes George W. Bush when he ran against Vice President Al Gore.

... This is a presidency in deep trouble, made worse by the refusal to acknowledge the trouble.

They don't trust Kerry.

During the campaign, Kerry has said many things with which the Journal agrees. But some of them do not square with his record. Being the president of the United States is very different from being a senator from Massachusetts. Kerry is largely unknown and untried.

So we offer no endorsement. We urge our readers to weigh what they know and what they believe is important, and vote for the candidate who they believe can best lead the United States in these perilous times.

I think it's a shame that they fall for the weakest of weak talking points against Kerry: he's a Massachusetts Senator. Surely there are a lot of reasons to not like Kerry. I can't think of many, but I understand that they exist. But for an editorial board, no matter how conservative, to offer this cop-out (note the complete absence of information to back up their claim... just, his record doesn't match his ideas -- which we like -- and he IS a Massachusetts senator) is pretty shameful.

Not to mention the fact that they cite the fact that Kerry is untried, after acknowledging that they endorsed Bush in 2000 despite his "shaky" foreign policy background. An untried U.S. Senator is unacceptable, but they were okay with endorsing a governor?

I can't believe they bent this far backwards just to avoid crossing the party line.

N&O endorses Bowles

2004-10-18T19:19:00.000-04:00

Enthusiastically, at that.

The News & Observer's editorial page enthusiastically endorses Bowles for the office because of the thoughtful and specific aims he has articulated in this, his second Senate campaign.
...
Bowles, 59, has effectively communicated with voters in a hopeful, positive way. In a state battered by textile plant closings, shrinkage in the tobacco industry and outsourcing in the
technology sector, he would trim what he regards as unnecessary regulation on small businesses and reduce tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas. His range of experience equips him splendidly to make headway against these challenges

He offers specific and sensible proposals for providing health insurance to thousands in North Carolina who are priced out of the market, or to those whose employers can't offer coverage. In that regard he would expand the state program for uninsured children, allow more low-income
adults to join the program, and pass tax credits for small businesses so they could offer coverage to more workers. He offers a tailored approach to tort reform, supporting a cap on damages in medical malpractice lawsuits but only if exceptions are made for intentional or reckless acts by medical workers.
...
Burr is reliably pro-business, but he hasn't come close to matching Bowles in effectively presenting positive ideas about how to bring better paying jobs to North Carolinians.

In short, there is indeed a stark choice in this Senate race. Erskine Bowles offers North Carolina a stellar history of public service, a wealth of experience in business, and a view of government that reaches out to people. North Carolina deserves no less.

I gotta say I'm more emotionally wrapped up in Erskine's race than the one for the presidency, or any other. He'll be a great Senator. Al Hunt agrees.

BlueNC slacks off.

2004-10-17T11:23:00.001-04:00

Our apologies. What with elections coming up and school hitting hard for those of BlueNC still in school (I don't miss midterms in the least), we have slacked off at the worst possible time.

The election is two weeks from Tuesday, and we've been MIA. That's a shame, considering there's definitely no shortage of things to cover.

Patsy Keever is only down by two, according to a Feldman Group poll. This, only days after her opponent, Republican Rep. Charles Taylor failed to show up for a forum discussion between the two. Throw on top nearly 15,000 new registrants out there, and Taylor's gotta be running scared.

In addition, WRAL5 blogged the gubernatorial debate!!! Smooth move, and they did it pretty adeptly. Comments enabled, frequent updates, good points made. Too bad the Libertarian Party (and one misinformed, wrongheaded Ballantine voter) ganged up on the comments section - it was as close as they could get to the debate.

Speaking of Ballantine, see this. Or this. Or especially THIS (registration required). Summary: Ballantine is sketchy.

Of interest: Stateline does a nice piece on the new digital political campaign.

We're back. We swear.

Richard Burr says 'No' to farmers.

2004-10-07T18:47:00.000-04:00

For months, I’ve watched Richard Burr, and time and time again, he said he’d do everything he could to ensure we had a tobacco buyout. When he said this, I took him at his word. Time and time again, he said FDA regulation or no, he’d vote for a buyout. “Whatever it takes because that’s how important this is for our farmers,” he told my father, once. When he said this, I took him at his word.

But yesterday, Richard Burr showed his cards. Yesterday, Richard Burr showed that the support of the executives at RJ Reynolds mattered more to him than the support of North Carolina tobacco farmers. Yesterday, Richard Burr voted for a tobacco buyout that prevented the FDA from regulating tobacco. Yesterday, Richard Burr voted against provisions that would have paid farmers billions more. Yesterday, Richard Burr made a vote that will kill the buyout bill this year and probably damn it for all of time.

“The FDA is the wrong place for regulation,” he told reporters. "We already have enough regulation."

The problem with that idea is that it isn’t farmers complaining about regulation. It’s big tobacco. And it’s not all big tobacco. Phillip Morris supports a buyout with FDA regulation. It’s RJ Reynolds that Burr was listening to, and small wonder, because that company has supported him for years.

At the very least, his vote will cost North Carolina $790 million. At worst, it means the end to the legislation. The Senate is willing to bend on lots of things, but regulation has always been part of the deal. Regulation is the catalyst that has held the coalition of anti-smoking advocates, tobacco companies, and farmers together to lobby for this bill. Senator Dole recognizes that, and she has always supported a buyout with the FDA provision.

I’m so angry, I can’t even write coherently. Please help Erskine beat this guy!

****UPDATE****

The Senate about to vote to invoke cloture on the bill which includes the tobacco buyout. It is attached to a HUGELY important tax bill. And the Senate will surely vote to end the debate rather than see the $108 billion bill delayed. The buyout is going to happen, as it undoubtedly should. The buyout is more important than party politics.

That doesn't change the fact that Richard Burr would rather protect RJR than support tobacco farmers, and in doing so, he cost the rural areas of this state close to $800 million. That's unacceptable.

NC-5: A potential upset?

2004-10-06T20:27:00.000-04:00

North Carolina's incumbents are all pretty safe; particularly on the Republican side. We've said for awhile that Patsy Keever in the Eleventh might be the best hope for a pick-up.

But apparently Jim Harrell (seen here sporting a spiffy new web site) in the highly-conservative Fifth District might be giving Republicans a run for their money.

The Fifth - which almost nominated uberconservative Republican Vernon Robinson but wussed out in the end by nominating only slightly less offensive Virginia Foxx - consists of all or parts of Iredell, Alexander, Wilkes, Watauga, Ashe, Alleghany, Surry, Yadkin, Davie, Stokes, Rockingham and Forsyth Counties. It's Richard Burr's old stomping grounds, and hasn't been considered competitive enough to even watch.

But Harrell, a Surry County Commissioner, is making inroads. He's got bipartisan campaign chairs and has the advantage of running in an open seat.

An internal Harrell campaign poll shows that voters who know of both candidates, 49 percent prefer Harrell and 44 percent prefer Foxx. Here's the rub: Harrell has 40 percent name recognition, and Foxx has 80 percent. That's a pretty huge gap. But Foxx's negatives are pretty high due to the nasty Republican primary and runoff.

Harrell starts running tv ads really soon, so his name ID should go up dramatically. Who knows? Maybe we can get a surprise pick-up in the Fifth and send another North Carolina Democrat to Congress.

Volunteer or Contribute. It'd be great to keep Virginia Foxx out of Washington D.C.

Burr's Wearing Them Rainbows...

2004-10-03T22:38:00.000-04:00

Everyone get the flip-flop reference? From Burr's own website...

"I believe that parents and local school administrators are best able to make decisions about what is needed in their school system - not Washington bureaucrats."

And from the very same website...

"In 2001, Congress passed President Bush’s No Child Left Behind Act. I voted for this bi-partisan education reform bill."

One of these things is not like the other one. One of these things just doesn't belong.

Slams of the Non-Rhetorical Variety

2004-10-03T20:44:00.000-04:00

Let's preface this post by saying we're not into violence in elections. However, something this funny (and we know its funny only because we know no one was permanently hurt) comes along but so often.

The Durham Herald-Sun's police roundup reports on post-debate festivities in Carrboro. You must read this police report. Seriously, if you only read one police report this fall, this must be it. Here, we'll give you a teaser, but read the whole thing, because it gets better.

CARRBORO -- After watching the presidential debate Thursday night, two UNC students ended up slapping each other while fighting over who Jesus would vote for in the election.

We here at BlueNC are all about full disclosure (unless its something bad about us). In that vein, we should tell you that one of the partisans, R. Brooks Rollins, AKA The Congressman, used to live with us. We're also able to report that Rollins entered the fray on the side of Senator Kerry, and that his blow to the other gentleman was inaccurately described as a "slap." It was more of an open-handed blow with the palm and, we're assured, very manly.

Weekend Preview:

2004-10-01T02:54:00.000-04:00

Nate and I are going to be rolling out our endorsement for a couple of really key races for the North Carolina State House. This two folks are incredible candidates who will bring tons of ability and energy to the General Assembly. Check back and shout back if you've got something to say!

Bowles-Burr race tightening

2004-09-30T22:44:00.000-04:00

Bowles: 45 (48, 45)
Burr: 44 (38, 35)

Undecided: 11 (14, 20)
moe: 4 percent
Mason-Dixon poll, from WRAL.

Interesting, Bowles down 41-47 in the northeast. Otherwise leading big in southeast, Charlotte and Triangle. Burr predictably with a huge lead in the Triad.

NC-11: Keever needs help

2004-09-30T20:33:00.000-04:00

I'm going to post our first legislative candidate highlight later this weekend, but I just wanted to bring to everyone's attention Patsy Keever, opponent to Repub. Charles Taylor in the Eleventh, and her online fundraising efforts.

Keever is our one really solid pick-up opportunity in N.C., but Taylor has a massive adbuy and the momentum of incumbency for her to overcome first.

I got this e-mail from Keever's campaign today:

Now, I am turning to you. As the 4th quarter filing draws to a close, I need your help. Any contribution you can give will make a huge difference. Contributions of $100, $50, $25 and $10 will add up fast. If 500 of you donate just $20, we'll have raised an additional $10,000. In real
terms, that is enough money to stay on the radio for an entire week in the 11th District.

... We have accomplished something so amazing during this election. We have taken a grassroots campaign and propelled it to one of the most watched congressional campaigns of the election cycle. I thank you for that.

As a campaign, we have outraised Charles Taylor for three consecutive filing quarters. Now, with less than 24 hours left in the filing period, we have the opportunity to continue the streak and to keep the momentum going strong until November 2nd.

Wait... what?

As a campaign, we have outraised Charles Taylor for three consecutive filing quarters.

Impressive. A Buncombe County commissioner is outraising an entrenched Repub. incumbent who's been stockpiling cash for years. Tell me that would happen if not for the attention of Atrios and the rest of the web community.

If you can give Keever some of your time or a few bucks, please do.

And (while we're out in Western Cackilack) responding to Jeff Onamotopoe's comments on the "What are we doin' here?" thread, these threads aren't going to be Chapel Hill-centric... As a matter of fact, if we're smart we'll stay out of Chapel Hill politics altogether. We intend to spread our focus across the state, but if we're going to do that we need help from some of y'all Western folks. Seen a good article that isn't in the N&O or Observer? Share. Heard rumors? Noticed a candidate's presence? Or know a good way to give time to a candidate out in WNC? Share.

Feeble attempt at a (somewhat) open thread

2004-09-30T20:28:00.000-04:00

Here's to hopin' that Carville & Co. has been able to focus our message enough for our candidate to be semi-coherent!

Thoughts on debate? Y'all make sure and comment so we don't look all lonely with our empty "open" thread. Will check in later. Enjoy.

Quote of the Day:

2004-09-27T20:00:00.000-04:00

"I'm not embarressed to vote with the President 96% of the time. He's right that often."

-Congressman Richard Burr

North Carolina Quote of the Day:

2004-09-24T13:42:00.000-04:00

"The lottery's not going away. It's time to keep the money here. The people want it. The legislature is going to have to let them vote on it at some point. The pressure's too great."

-Mike Easley opens up that can of worms...

(National) Quote of the Day:

2004-09-24T13:36:00.000-04:00

"The CIA laid out several scenarios and said life could be lousy, life could be OK, life could be better, and they were just guessing as to what the conditions might be like."

-George W. Bush assesses the National Intelligence Estimate

The Offensive Continues...

2004-09-24T11:23:00.000-04:00

People, even those from our camp, have been pretty critical of John Edwards lately. Over the past three weeks, there have been a lot of stories that ask, "Where is John Edwards?"

And over that same amount of time, there have been a lot of Democrats wondering, "Why isn't John Edwards throwing punches in this race?'"

The answers?

1) "It is tough to find Edwards unless you are willing to stay in something other than a top-tier hotel. Even the biggest chains feature only their knock-off brands in the towns where he goes. Sometimes you have to settle for a Motel 6. But Edwards is going after the swing voters where they live. His recent Pennsylvania stops covered a suburban swath where nearly 20 percent of the state’s likely voters reside."

2) "From what I’ve seen of Edwards, he would have to set himself on fire to generate more heat in his campaign appearances"

This according to Craig Crawford, a writer for Congressional Quarterly.

Crawford's piece flies directly at the chatterbox wisdom that John Edwards hasn't been visible and that he keeps playing up his good-guy-who-ain't-going-to-say-anything-mean-about-the-other-fella routine. And it says explicitly what I have been thinking for awhile.

Don't believe that John Edwards has been heating up his rhetoric?

“Sen. Kerry says he sees two Americas,” Cheney has been telling GOP audiences. “It makes the whole thing mutual. America sees two John Kerrys.”

Crawford reports Edwards' response in a small little town called Chillicothe, Ohio.

“Dick Cheney may think that’s funny, but out here in the real world, you’re living it,” he said. “I wonder if the 230,000 people in Ohio who lost their jobs think that’s funny?”

I wonder if the 4,800 Pillowtex workers in Kannapolis, North Carolina think that's funny. I wonder if the 1.6 million North Carolinians living without basic health care think that's funny.

I bet the guy who took Dick Cheney's job at Halliburton is laughing though. Laughing all the way to the bank with his $7 billion no-bid contact.

That's the problem with Republicans in this election. They underestimate the intelligence of voters. They run juvenile attack ads and try to package their ridiculous laugh lines as reason enough to cast a vote against John Kerry. North Carolina knows better.

What are we doing, anyway?

2004-09-24T01:09:00.000-04:00

Okay. So now we’ve built up some content, and gained (just a few) readers. But this particular blog isn’t just dedicated to the rantings of a few guys from UNC. Lo and behold, it has a purpose. So let’s get down to the nitty-gritty and talk about what we’re trying to do here at BlueNC.

George Entenman wrote a guest post at OrangePolitics about a month ago, in which he asked the question “What can progressives do locally to further our political causes?” In that piece he made a compelling argument for contributing to your local Democratic party (in this case, the Orange County Democratic Party) where money will help get-out-the-vote efforts instead of large TV buys. Mr. Entenman was focusing more specifically on how we can contribute to the state and national campaigns; those of Bowles, Kerry-Edwards, etc. But it gets to the point of what we hope to do with Blue North Carolina.

We’ve all seen the impact “web roots” politics can have. Joe Trippi assessed it pretty well in his book The Revolution Will Not Be Televised (which you should read if you haven’t yet): the Internet has the potential to build communities. Daily Kos has built a community around politics, as have others. Kos – or more accurately, the community built around Kos – has the ability to embrace causes and candidates and spark an excitement about campaigns that can propel a candidate into contention, and hopefully victory. That excitement can generate ideas, money and volunteers.

We want to do the same thing Kos is doing, but on a much more focused level: Democratic politics in N.C.

We’ve witnessed the blogosphere influence national elections, and we’ve seen the blogosphere influence local politics. Ed Cone and David Hoggard organized the Piedmont Blog Conference largely to explore the latter phenomenon.

But the online community has yet to turn its attention on the legislative arena. We hope to highlight those races and those candidates; particularly those few that are embracing the Internet in their campaigns.

Surprisingly N.C. Democrats are trailing Republicans in the web race on the legislative level. Our goal at BlueNC is to show that the online community can have a dramatic impact at all levels of politics. In attempting to do so, we will try to encourage more candidates to use the Web in the future. We can’t move the kind of money Kos can, but we can help out here and there. We can also help mobilize volunteers. A lot of our readers come from the UNC Young Democrats at UNC-Chapel Hill. If we can highlight legislative candidates who need help with door-to-door and other campaign work, hopefully we can build an audience of activists who want to contribute.

So that’s our goal. Over the next few weeks, we’ll be highlighting a few races where help is most needed; close races where the contributions (of time or money) of local progressives are most needed.

But BlueNC isn't just for us. If we want to work toward something like what Trippi describes and Kos has attained, we need a community.

This site won't just be the political diatribes of a few guys from Chapel Hill. If we want a statewide perspective, you're going to have to help us. If you see something we should know about, let us know. If you think we need to be called out, do it. So help us out.

Thoughts?

This leaves me feeling profoundly sad..

2004-09-23T22:54:00.000-04:00

It seems like the cost of war counter takes far too long to open on many computers, but I still think it's worth point attention to.

Quote of the Day:

2004-09-23T10:36:00.000-04:00

"Yesterday, I was in Orlando, next to Fantasyland. The difference between me and George Bush is I drove by it. He lives in it."

-Senator John Kerry

Quote of the Day

2004-09-22T17:44:00.000-04:00

"Presidents don't get to change their minds when they're wrong."

Nicole Devenish, Communications Director Bush/Cheney 04

"This war is a powder keg. It could take the price of a barrel to US $100"

2004-09-22T13:52:00.000-04:00

Those are the words of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez at a meeting of OPEC last Wednesday.

But no one is talking about it, and I can't figure out why.

If oil prices reach anything close to $100 a barrel, it will mean the loss of productivity for business, it will mean the loss of jobs for workers, and it will mean higher prices on lots of things besides gas for all of us.

And its because the President chose to fight this war at this time in this way. He has no one to blaim but himself for his failures or the state of our country....

NEEDED: TRANSLATION OF GROVER NORQUIST

2004-09-22T13:19:00.000-04:00

Ok, in the Spanish-language newspaper, El Mundo, the ubiquitous Grover Norquist --- President of Americans for Tax Reform, board member of the NRA, and board member of the American Conservative Union --- in other words, one of the dark-shadowy figures with ungodly amounts of influence over the Republicans was asked:

¿El fin de los demócratas? -- Is this the end of the Democrats?

His reply:

Sí, porque además su base demográfica se está hundiendo.Cada año mueren dos millones de personas que combatieron en la Segunda Guerra Mundial y que vivieron la Gran Depresión. Esa generación ha sido una excepción en la Historia de EEUU, porque ha defendido políticas antiamericanas. Ellos votaron por la creación del Estado de Bienestar y por el servicio militar obligatorio.Ellos son la base electoral demócrata. Y se están muriendo. Y, al mismo tiempo, cada vez más estadounidenses tienen acciones.Eso hace que defiendan los intereses de las empresas, porque son sus propios intereses. Por eso, es imposible llevar a cabo políticas de odio social, de lucha de clases.

I've read one version that translates his reply to:

"Yes, because in addition their demographic base is shrinking. Each year, 2 million people who fought in the Second World War and lived through the Great Depression die. This generation has been an exeception in American history, because it has defended anti-American policies. They voted for the creation of the welfare state and obligatory military service. They are the base of the Democratic Party. And they are dying. And, at the same time, all the time more Americans have stocks. That makes them defend the interests of business, because it is their own interest. Because of that, it's impossible to bring to the fore policies of social hate, of class warfare."

That's right --- the Greatest Generation, which fought for American freedom at Normandy, Guadalcanal, and all the other battlefields of the Second World War, is guilty of anti-Americanism...

Could someone else please dicepher the above text and tell me that something was lost in the translation? I can't believe anyone would make this charge...

2004-09-22T11:57:00.000-04:00

As we mentioned earlier, John Kerry is on the offensive about Iraq. The rhetoric in his speech at NYU was terrific, but he's sticking to his talking points elsewhere too. This from his press conference yesterday:

"The president cannot deny that they have not achieved what they said they've achieved. They've misled the American people.

Secretary Rumsfeld stands up and says we got 210,000 Iraqi forces. And then he admits that they have 50 percent less than that, 95,000.

But then the truth comes out, and it says they only have 5,000.

I believe I can do a better job of telling the truth to the American people and of providing real choices that protect America and make us safer.

And those troops on the ground in Iraq deserve a president who tells the truth and responds to it appropriately by building the kind of support that helps them out.

You have no idea how many young troops I've met in the rope lines along the way around the country who have come back to me and said to me, "Senator, we need to do this better. We need to do this differently. We need your help."

I'm going to lead those troops successfully. We have to be successful. And I have a better plan to be successful than the president. "

Iraq is the issue. We have to attack the President where he is strongest and turn his strength into a weakness. That's the long and the short of it.

Gotta Love the NYT Edit Board...

2004-09-22T11:49:00.000-04:00

President Bush's Lead Balloon

"Mr. Bush might have done better at wooing broader international support if he had spent less time on self-justification and scolding and more on praising the importance of international cooperation and a strengthened United Nations. Instead, his tone-deaf speechwriters achieved a perverse kind of alchemy, transforming a golden opportunity into a lead balloon. "

Quote of the Day:

2004-09-21T01:31:00.000-04:00

Top Ten Bush Tax Proposals

10. No estate tax for families with at least two U.S. presidents.

9. W-2 Form is now Dubya-2 Form.

8. Under the simplified tax code, your refund check goes directly to Halliburton.

7. The reduced earned income tax credit is so unfair, it just makes me want to tear out my lustrous, finely groomed hair.

6. Attorney General (John) Ashcroft gets to write off the entire U.S. Constitution.

5. Texas Rangers can take a business loss for trading Sammy Sosa.

4. Eliminate all income taxes; just ask Teresa (Heinz Kerry) to cover the whole damn thing.

3. Cheney can claim Bush as a dependent.

2. Hundred-dollar penalty if you pronounce it "nuclear" instead of "nucular."

1. George W. Bush gets a deduction for mortgaging our entire future.

-Senator John Kerry, on The Late Show with David Letterman, September 20, 2004

NC-8: Troutman working webroots campaign

2004-09-20T22:59:00.000-04:00

In the Eighth District, Democrat Beth Troutman is challenging incumbent Repub. Robin Hayes. According to OpenSecrets.org, Troutman is trailing badly as far as funds go. But she's running a hard grassroots campaign in the 8th, which just about stretches from Charlotte to Fayetteville (the home of our very own lovely Dan Harrison).

Hayes has won his last two elections by about 9 points, and the '98 election by 2.5 points. The district is always considered a toss-up, and frequently goes to Repub. candidates for the House and legislature but for Dems. in statewide races. A former GOP nominee for Governor (Hunt dismissed him in '96), he's a powerhouse with tons of cash and a lousy record. Given Edwards' presence on the ticket, which might yet help a few Dem. candidates here and there, and Hayes' unfortunate vote for Pres. Bush's fast-track authority, we should be able to make him vulnerable.

Troutman, whose blog is a great touch (albeit a neglected one), has commenced a grassroots, web-based fund-raising operation. Her "9-to-5 Campaign Drive" asks you to contribute $9 and to e-mail 5 of your friends asking them to do the same.

And if $9 is too rich for your blood, you can contribute $5 and ask 9 of your friends to do the same. As a recent college graduate, I find her alternate plan a considerate touch.

Since most of BlueNC's readership appears to be college students, I think this is a plan we can help with. Go contribute.

Here's more district info for the dorky among our audience. Like us.

The 8th extends eastward to Fayetteville's Cumberland County, which casts 17% of the vote, but stops short of including the heavily military neighborhoods just outside the gates of Fort Bragg. The irregular boundaries of the district have a political explanation. Democratic redistricters
included as much of the Democratic Sand Hills as they could, but removed most of Union County, a fast-growing and heavy Republican area just east of Charlotte. And they added central city precincts in Charlotte and Mecklenburg County with some blacks and some affluent white liberals. So this is a split personality district, with very different political leanings in the textile country, the Sand Hills and Charlotte. It has usually been carried by Republican presidential candidates and by North Carolina Democrats in close statewide contests. It has long been
targeted by both Democrats and Republicans as a marginal district and has often been
seriously contested, though over the past three decades it has only changed political hands twice, in 1974 and 1998. (National Journal Almanac, 2004)

(From Jerome Armstrong at Ourcongress.org)

Quote of the Day

2004-09-20T11:19:00.000-04:00

"Vice President Cheney still insists that the earth is flat."

-Senator John Kerry, speaking at New York University

Falsehood in Forwards...

2004-09-20T11:00:00.000-04:00

My mom sent me an email this morning. This was the text of it:

Subject: Kerry and the Bible

Thought you might find this interesting...

The Lord has a way of revealing those of us who really know him, and those that don't! Think about it! Kerry gave a big speech last week about how his faith is so "important" to him. In this attempt to convince the American people that we should consider him for president, he announced that his favorite Bible verse is John 16:3. Of course the speech writer meant John 3:16, but nobody in the Kerry camp was familiar enough with scripture to catch the error. And do you know what John 16:3 says?

John 16:3 says; "They will do such things because they have not known the Father or me."

Obviously, this is completely false. Couldn't be farther from the truth. First, John Kerry is a Christian who knows the Bible. Secondly, his speechwriters check their sources as regualrly as newspaper men. Third, if a national leader is going to butcher his lines, every single one of us should know that its going to be W.

This is what I wrote back:

People have said the exact same thing about John Kerry and Al Gore. They’ve even accused George W. Bush of making the mistake. The truth is none of them was that stupid.

Who was stupid enough to talk about John 16:3?

President George H.W. Bush -- during a speech before a religious broadcasters' conference in 1990, according to newspaper columnist Cal Thomas, who witnessed the event firsthand.

You have to realize that almost all of this email crap is false. Don’t buy into it. Check the facts.

This isn't the only email out there like this. For the next 43 days, each of us has a responsibilitiy to open the forwards sent to us and renounce each of these falsehoods.

Who am I to say whether they are deliberate attacks orchestrated by the GOP or the misguided actions of an unfortunate few? To be honest, it doesn't matter. A small thing like this will likely be enough to sway the minds of a few.

Take a lesson from the '92 Clinton campaign: When you see something like this, hit back and hit back hard.

'Steel Magnolias'

2004-09-19T23:53:00.000-04:00

There was a great article in last month's Atlantic that somehow slipped through our collective grasp, until now. It profiles the number of Democratic women who are making in-roads in the South, even while many Democratic strategists are ready to write the whole region off from the voting logs. The piece makes a number of good points. Among them:

All these women hail from the political center-right, favoring a robust military, gun owners' rights, and tax cuts—a far cry from the pantsuited liberals of the Hillary Clinton mold who leap to mind at the phrase "female Democratic senator."

As polls and election results over the past ten years have consistantly shown, these women have a great chance of attracting the very type of swing voters Democrats need, and they do so more naturally than their male counterparts. In fact the Atlantic says just that:

In a region where the white male vote is staunchly Republican, the best chance for a Democrat to win statewide election is by making substantial inroads among centrist and Republican-leaning women. "There are more independents among white women," says Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University, "and women candidates seem to have an easier time reaching out to them than some of the male candidates." If a woman can draw on female solidarity and still attract minority votes in sufficient number, she can eke out a victory.

If we are going to start winning back the once-solid South, this might be the place to start.

I don't think we can deny it anymore...

2004-09-19T18:18:00.000-04:00

We aren't winning the war. This story is about eight hours old, so no doubt, many of you have seen it. But that doesn't mean its not worth blogging about.

The Guardian Reports:

The British Army is to start pulling troops out of Iraq next month despite the deteriorating security situation in much of the country, The Observer has learnt.

The main British combat force in Iraq, about 5,000-strong, will be reduced by around a third by the end of October during a routine rotation of units....

The forthcoming 'drawdown' of British troops in Basra has not been made public and is likely to provoke consternation in both Washington and Baghdad. Many in Iraq argue that more, not fewer, troops are needed.

Even Republicans are starting to realize that we can't keep this up. This morning, on Face the Nation, Chuck Hagel (R-Nebraska) said, "We're in trouble, we're in deep trouble in Iraq." That's a startling show of honesty that I don't think we'll ever see from the White House.

In what now seems like a statement of terrible irony, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) told folks from CNN, "I think we're going to need more people over time."

Senator Graham had better expect to see a lot of boys from the Carolinas over there in the next year or two.

Perhaps the most candid comments from Senator Richard Lugar (R-Indiana). On the ABC program This Week, he was asked why only $1 billion of the $18 billion that Congress appropriated for reconstruction in Iraq had been spent. He replied, "Well, this is the incompetence in the administration."

I couldn't have said it better myself.

(Thanks to the International Herald Tribune for covering all the news shows)

2004-09-18T13:44:00.000-04:00

Senator John Edwards issued the following statement today based on reports that the Republican National Committee sent campaign mail into West Virginia claiming that the Bible will be banned if Democrats are elected in November:

Republicans always say they want to have a values debate but lying and spreading hate were not the values I learned growing up in a small town in North Carolina where the Bible was the most important book my home. George Bush and Dick Cheney should be appalled by these despicable mailings. They should condemn this practice immediately and tell everyone associated with their campaign to never use tactics like this again. The American people deserve better.

2004-09-18T10:42:00.000-04:00

In response to the latest poll numbers from North Carolina, Dustin Ingalls asked about cell phones and polling. It's good that he did.

This morning, Taegan Goddard posted a piece that Jimmy Breslin wrote for Newsday.

Breslin says:

The telephone polls do not include cellular phones.

There are almost 169 million cell phones being used in America today - 168,900,019 as of Sept. 15, according to the cell phone institute in Washington.There is no way to poll cell phone users, so it isn't done.
Not one cell phone user has received a call on their cell phone asking them how they plan to vote as of today.Out of 168 million, anything can happen.
Midway through election night, these stern-faced network announcers suddenly will be frozen white and they have to give a result:"It appears that the winner of the election tonight is ... Milford J. Schmitt of New Albany, Ind. He presently has 56 percent of the vote, placing him well ahead of John Kerry, George Bush and another newcomer, Gibson D. Mills of Corvallis, Ore. It appears the nation's voting habits have been changed unbeknownst to us. Mr. Schmitt was asked what party he is in. He answered, 'The winning party.'"

Good Ol' Bush Wisdom

2004-09-17T23:36:00.000-04:00

"Had we gone into Baghdad -- we could have done it, you guys could have done it, you could have been there in 48 hours -- and then what? Which sergeant, which private, whose life would be at stake in perhaps a fruitless hunt in an urban guerilla war to find the most-secure dictator in the world? Whose life would be on my hands as the commander-in-chief because I, unilaterally, went beyond the international law, went beyond the stated mission, and said we're going to show our macho? We're going into Baghdad. We're going to be an occupying power -- America in an Arab land -- with no allies at our side. It would have been disastrous."

-George H.W. Bush in a speech to Gulf War Veterans 1998

(via Daily Kos)

Woes in the Queen City

2004-09-17T20:29:00.000-04:00

Earlier today, Matt Compton posted an editorial from the Charlotte Observer about the economic distress that North Carolina is facing and how the President doesn't seem to care. The edit was right on the money. However, it left out one crucial detail: the USAirways bankruptcy. This story was reported on the front page a few days ago, but I think it bears repeating here.

A few days ago, USAirways declared bankruptcy. Again. As in they've done this before. You wanna know what happened the last time they did this? They laid off thousands of workers, hundreds of them in the Charlotte area, and many more in the Philly and Pittsburgh areas. They cut wages for all the workers that were left by about 20%. They jacked up health insurance premiums. They defanged the IAM and the ALPA, two of the biggest (only?) unions in the state. They twisted the Charlotte City Council's arm to get them to hold down the tax revenues on runway usage. How do I know this? I was there when they did it. My dad is a proud union machinist. And this time, USAirways is gonna finish the job they started the last time they went to bankruptcy court.

A lot of you know and worry about job losses in the abstract. I know first hand. When last I was home, I got an earful about the wonderful job "Uncle" Dave Siegel (the CEO of USAirways, not my friend) was doing for the company, and how he was driving the company into the ground like he did to Continental a decade ago. I heard how Siegel was taking his golden parachute and getting out while he left his workers out in the cold. I know how Dad worries about how he might not be able to hold Charlotte, which means that the best case scenario is having to commute to Pittsburgh every week. I worry about literally not being able to pay for school.

And what has President Bush done about it? Doodly. Bupkus. Pretended it ain't happening. Kerry can and will. He'll make sure labor gets a fair shake. He'll make sure America is stronger and safer, which will spur the tourist and business travel that the airlines depend on. He'll let America be America again.

If this ain't enough to turn Charlotte blue, I don't know what is

Read more at the Charlotte Observer

Unbelievable!

2004-09-17T18:25:00.000-04:00

This might be the single worst attack I've heard of from this election, and I think that's saying something.

Campaign mail with a return address of the Republican National Committee warns West Virginia voters that the Bible will be prohibited and men will marry men if liberals win in November.

The literature shows a Bible with the word "BANNED" across it and a photo of a man, on his knees, placing a ring on the hand of another man with the word "ALLOWED." The mailing tells West Virginians to "vote Republican to protect our families" and defeat the "liberal agenda."
Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie said Friday that he wasn't aware of the mailing, but said it could be the work of the RNC. "It wouldn't surprise me if we were mailing voters on the issue of same-sex marriage," Gillespie said.

What's even more unbelievable is that this attack isn't coming from some fringe PAC or 527. This isn't being mailed out by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth or Club for Growth. This mail piece went out with a return address from the Republican National Committee. Ed Gillespie isn't denying that its from his people. He's actually saying that it might be his. I'll say more about it later. Right now, I'm too disgusted to put words to page.

Bounce? I don't see no stinkin' bounce

2004-09-17T18:23:00.000-04:00

The latest numbers from North Carolina, from Daily Kos

Lake, Snell, Perry (D) for private client. 9/14-17. MoE ~4.5%. (9/17 results)

Kerry 47 (44)
Bush 47 (48)

We're stormin' back!

2004-09-17T15:19:00.000-04:00

The Opinion Page of the Charlotte Observer offers some friendly advice to the President:

"So far, the president's three visits to the state have not strayed beyond the rarefied air of campaigns and money. We're happy he's here, but there's much more to see in North Carolina than party loyalists and big supporters.

He might learn more from the many North Carolinians who cope daily with the effects of his foreign policy decisions and the economic shifts that have occurred under his administration.
Camp Lejeune and Fort Bragg have deployed thousands of men and women. Thousands more reservists have left ordinary lives for active duty. Some have had their terms extended indefinitely. The president should spend some time visiting a family coping financially and emotionally with the absence of a father, mother, son or brother in Iraq or Afghanistan.

He should spend time, too, in the small town of Kannapolis, ground zero for the largest single manufacturing layoff in America. When textile company Pillowtex closed in 2003, some 6,000 people lost jobs -- a painful 3,650 of those jobs in Cabarrus County, right next door to Charlotte.

He might stop and sit a spell, too, with a farm family in Eastern North Carolina. Maybe he could explain his nonchalance toward a federal buyout of tobacco allotments, then help those folks decide how to make the payment on a tobacco harvester -- which can't be used for anything else -- and still transition to some other livelihood."

Truer words have never been uttered...

Charlotte Observer: 'Election `ground war' wants you'

2004-09-17T14:39:00.000-04:00

The Charlotte Observer runs a neat little story about what your average volunteer can do to make a difference before election day. They're preaching the gospel as far as we're concerned. Thus sayeth Tim Funk:

"It's not too late to be a volunteer. If you're willing to walk door to door, make phone calls, drive people to the polls, even host a debate-watching party, the campaigns and political parties want you. But, hey, it's the 21st century, so don't overlook the volunteer opportunities offered by the Internet. The old, expensive days of licking stamps and envelopes have been replaced by the era of the e-mail."

If you want to volunteer:

Kerry-Edwards: (919) 832-5559 in Raleigh

North Carolina Democratic Party: please contact Sallie Leslie at 919-821-2777, ext. 105

UNC Young Democrats: Contact Tom Jensen or visit http://www.unc.edu/yd/

First Local Race Blog Ad

2004-09-14T23:58:00.000-04:00

Sid Sowers, the Democrat running against Jim Gully for HD-103 is running a blogad on Ed Cone's site.

As far as I know, that's a first in North Carolina politics.

Of course, Erskine Bowles is running blogads all over the place--from Ed's site to The Political Wire and Talkingpointsmemo. But Sowers isn't running a statewide race, and he's not looking to attract national attention. And that's what makes this whole deal all the more impressive.

The web is a really good way for a candidate from a place like Mecklenburg County -- an area with a good number of 'plugged-in' residents -- to make a splash in ways traditional media simply cannot accomplish using a good deal less money.

And of course, it's a way to raise money.

A blog ad like the one on Ed's site doesn't require a lot of work. The ad itself probably took five minutes to design. I'm willing to be the text on the page came straight off a fundraising letter. But I saw it, and now I know his name. Once I get paid on Friday, I might just give the man some money.

Kerry's chances in the Old North State

2004-09-13T01:02:00.000-04:00

I just got a mass e-mail from Carolina for Kerry chairman P.J. Lusk (who is soon joining the BlueNC team)saying that Ed Turlington, co-chair of the Kerry-Edwards North Carolina campaign and former national chair of Edwards for President, is speaking at 8 p.m. tomorrow night (Monday) at in the UNC-Chapel Hill Student Union Auditorium.

Should be interesting to hear from one of the primary folks behind Edwards' surprising presidential bid, not to mention getting his take on the ticket's chances in North Carolina.

I bet he disagrees with Mike Munger, who responds to Ed Cone's latest column on what Kerry has to do to win in Edwards' turf. Munger, chair of Duke's poli sci dept., cites this Washington Post article as he buys into the oft-repeated media line that Kerry's realizing impending doom in North Carolina. He appears to agree with the
the assessment from the Post - and Bush-Cheney strategist Matthew Dowd, who is quoted as saying:

"They've basically decided they're competing in 14 states and sort of ceded, for all intents and purposes, states they were in at the beginning of the year and spent a lot of money in."

Most of the media coverage, from NPR to CNN, seems to have bought the Bush campaign's spin. But the media only cares about media buys when relating a campaign's effort. The Kerry campaign says that its decision to scale back ads in North Carolina and other challenging battleground states is just saving money so that they can compete closer to election day. But most news sources have still declared the TV scaleback a concession that the campaign can't be competitive in those states. Basically, the media is declaring itself the primary indicator of a campaign's ability to succeed.

But there's no reason for Kerry-Edwards to throw in the towels in North Carolina, nor any real evidence that they think so either. SurveyUSA shows the Democratic ticket polling within the margin of error in the state - and steadily cutting into Bush's lead, to boot. There's more staff involved in coordinated efforts to ensure Democratic victory in North Carolina too. Kerry was in Greensboro just last week - his third visit since naming Edwards to the ticket. Even after that announcement, no one expected to see another visit. Not to mention the fact that the Bush Administration still isn't doing anything to help North Carolinians struggling with a rough economy. I see no reason to dismiss the Kerry campaign's explanation for its reduction in TV time.

So the media's jumping the gun in declaring a Kerry surrender in North Carolina. And hopefully blogs, which are ever more helpful in keeping the traditional media on its toes, will be able to remind folks that less TV spots don't necessarily spell doom for Kerry-Edwards in the Old North State.

Good news from Survey USA

2004-09-10T07:34:00.000-04:00

Over the past two months, during which the DNC and RNC have both concluded, Kerry has cut into Bush's lead by two. At the end of July, SurveyUSA was polling Kerry-Edwards at 44. In August, 45. In September, 46. In the meantime, Bush has dropped one point.

Meanwhile, Burr has lost two points while Bowles continues his strong lead.

And more interestingly, in the past month (during which time the SEANC political action committee made the ... bold... move of falling for Ballantine's empty promises and endorsing a Republican for the first time in history), Easley has doubled his lead. With only 2 percent undecided (lower than the other races polled), Easley has moved well above 50 percent and Ballantine has dropped five points.

Good call, SEANC.

In a SurveyUSA poll (MoE: 4.2 percent) of likely voters conducted from Sept. 6-8 (.pdf)

Bush: 50 (down from 51)
Kerry: 46 (up from 45)
3 percent undecided

Bowles: 50 (no movement)
Burr: 40 (down from 42)
3 percent undecided

Easley: 54 (up from 51)
Ballantine: 39 (down from 44)
2 percent undecided

via dailykos

Luebke's Big Idea

2004-09-09T17:21:00.000-04:00

The Wilmington Star-News (Motto: The Voice of Southeastern North Carolina, Submotto: Screw You Fayetteville) ran an interesting editorial yesterday about NC Representative Paul Luebke's (D-Durham) desire to introduce a bill to move primary election to an "instant runoff" system.

Essentially, the idea would ask voters to vote for two candidates on a primary day when three or more candidates were running for a given office. They would rank them in order of preference. If no candidate got enough "1st place" votes (under North Carolina's current system, you'd need 40% to avoid a runoff), then "2nd place" votes would instantly determine the outcome by being added to the top two vote-getters "1st place" votes. Then, whoever had the most total votes would win.

The edit rightly points out that such a system would eliminate the ridiculous drop-off in voter turnout between primaries and primary runoffs. More than that, it could quite possibly lead to more voters getting a nominee that is closer to their preferences.

Imagine a three-way Democratic primary. Candidate X is a fire-breathing liberal, Candidate Y is a left-of-center kind of guy, and Candidate Z is pretty conservative. In the primary, X gets 2000 votes, Y gets 3100 and Z gets 3000. Under the current system, Y and Z would go to a runoff a couple of weeks later. Assume several thousand less people vote (this is a pretty good bet), and Z wins 800 to 600. Even though a wide majority of the voters in the original primary wanted a left-of-center candidate of one type or another, that is not at all what they got.

Under Luebke's proposal, its very likely that nearly everyone who put in "1" votes for X would put in "2" votes for Y. Likewise, people who vote first for Z would probably prefer Y next. Y's supporter's second place votes might be split between the two other candidates. In any event, the probable result of the instant runoff would be Y receiving 8100 total votes (first place plus second place) to Z's 4550.

The bottom line, at least in the hypothetical, is that more people get a nominee who is closer to their own ideology.

Mending Fences...

2004-09-08T13:24:00.000-04:00

A week after SEANC endorsed Patrick Ballentine in the race for Governor, Mike Easley is trying slowly to patch some of the holes in their relationship. After meeting with leaders from the organization, the governor presented them with a letter that provides new guidelines to a problem that featured prominently on SEANC's list of complaints with the Easley administration. The News and Observers says,

"At issue was whether members of the association can use administrative leave time to attend association events. It has complained that state agencies, particularly the Department of Health and Human Services, have told employees they must use personal or vacation time to attend such functionsAt issue was whether members of the association can use administrative leave time to attend association events. It has complained that state agencies, particularly the Department of Health and Human Services, have told employees they must use personal or vacation time to attend such functions."

Of course, leaders of SEANC said it was too little, too late. But I have news for the state employees --- their endorsement isn't going to make or break this election. They aren't kingmakers, and by throwing their support behind a guy who is going to lose, they are only setting themselves up for more disappointment in coming years. Also, I'm more than a little bit interested in how Senator Ballantine hopes to pass three consecutive 5% raises. The legislature controls the purse strings--the best he can do is ask them nicely.

All that aside, the arrogance of these guys is more than a little unsettling...

I think its safe to say that Zell Miller is off President Carter's Christmas card list...

2004-09-08T13:16:00.000-04:00

The text of the letter that President Carter sent to Senator Miller (via talkingpointsmemo).

You seem to have forgotten that loyal Democrats elected you as mayor and as state senator. Loyal Democrats, including members of my family and me, elected you as lieutenant governor and as governor. It was a loyal Democrat, Lester Maddox, who assigned you to high positions in the state government when you were out of office. It was a loyal Democrat, Roy Barnes, who appointed you as U.S. Senator when you were out of office. By your historically unprecedented disloyalty, you have betrayed our trust.

Great Georgia Democrats who served in the past, including Walter George, Richard Russell, Herman Talmadge, and Sam Nunn disagreed strongly with the policies of Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and me, but they remained loyal to the party in which they gained their public office. Other Democrats, because of philosophical differences or the race issue, like Bo Callaway and Strom Thurmond, at least had the decency to become Republicans.

Everyone knows that you were chosen to speak at the Republican Convention because of your being a “Democrat,” and it’s quite possible that your rabid and mean-spirited speech damaged our party and paid the Republicans some transient dividends.

Perhaps more troublesome of all is seeing you adopt an established and very effective Republican campaign technique of destroying the character of opponents by wild and false allegations. The Bush campaign’s personal attacks on the character of John McCain in South Carolina in 2000 was a vivid example. The claim that war hero Max Cleland was a disloyal American and an ally of Osama bin Laden should have given you pause, but you have joined in this ploy by your bizarre claims that another war hero, John Kerry, would not defend the security of our nation except with spitballs. (This is the same man whom you described previously as “one of this nation's authentic heroes, one of this party's best-known and greatest leaders -- and a good friend.")

I, myself, never claimed to have been a war hero, but I served in the navy from 1942 to 1953, and, as president, greatly strengthened our military forces and protected our nation and its interests in every way. I don’t believe this warrants your referring to me as a pacificist.

Zell, I have known you for forty-two years and have, in the past, respected you as a trustworthy political leader and a personal friend. But now, there are many of us loyal Democrats who feel uncomfortable in seeing that you have chosen the rich over the poor, unilateral preemptive war over a strong nation united with others for peace, lies and obfuscation over the truth, and the political technique of personal character assassination as a way to win elections or to garner a few moments of applause. These are not the characteristics of great Democrats whose legacy you and I have inherited.

Bill Clinton's 42, as in pounds gained if you eat there

2004-09-07T13:14:00.000-04:00

The Washington Post's Washington Whispers reports that former President Bill Clinton (yes, the same former President Bill Clinton that just had quadruple bypass surgery for clogged arteries) is set to open a restaurtant called "42" in conjunction with his presidential library in Little Rock.

The eatery will feature "all his fatty favorites, like fried chicken, meatloaf--even tollhouse cookies from Hillary's recipe file." Insert cruel joke about how he'll be stuck at the salad bar here.

Seriously though, a southern food place where there's a possibility of running into Billy Boy himself? We smell roadtrip... or maybe thats the deep-fat-fried Butterfinger desert.

BREAKING NEWS

2004-09-03T13:58:00.000-04:00

We don't know much yet, but here's what we do know.

President Bill Clinton has been hospitalized with complaints of chest pain.

UPDATE: The AP reports that he has gone to Columbia Presbyterian Hospital in Manhattan and will have quadruple bypass surgery this afternoon.

Big Pimpin in the Big Apple

2004-09-02T12:39:00.000-04:00

From our own Daily Tar Heel...

Which is funnier? That dashing man-about-town Pat Ballentine is leering out of a cab advertising a gentleman's club, or that the staff member in the back apparently has no problem with it?

The Greatest Interview In The History of Television...

2004-09-02T10:14:00.000-04:00

In case you missed it last night, Senator Zell Miller (D[?!]-GA) stopped just short of challenging Hardball anchor Chris Matthews (who, btw has lost a bit of weight) to a duel. I deliver the text of the exchange just so the world can see the mental state of Senator Miller, fine man though he is.

MILLER: I'm not saying that. Wait a minute. This is your program and I'm a guest on your program, so I want to try to be as nice as I possibly can to you. I wish I was over there where I could get a little closer up into your face. But I'm not going to stand here and listen to that kind of stuff. I didn't say anything about not feeding poor kids. What are you doing?

MATTHEWS: No, I'm saying, that when you said tonight, I just want you to--

MILLER: You're saying a bunch of baloney that didn't have anything to do with what I said up there on the rostrum.

MATTHEWS: Do you believe, senator, truthfully, that John Kerry wants to defend the country with spitballs. Do you believe that?

MILLER: That was a metaphor, wasn't it? You know what a metaphor is.

MATTHEWS: Well what do you mean by that metaphor?

MILLER: He certainly doesn't want to defend the country with the B1 bomber or the B2 bomber or the Harrier jet or the Apache helicopter or all the other things that I mentioned. And there were even more of them than here. You've got to quit taking these Democratic talking points and using them –

MATTHEWS: No, I'm using your talking points and asking you if you really believe them.

MILLER: Well, let's use John Kerry's talking points from what he's had to say on the floor of the Senate where he's talked about them being occupiers; where he put out this whenever he was running for the U.S. Senate--about what he wanted to cancel. Cancel to me means do away with.

MATTHEWS: What did you mean by--?

MILLER: I think we ought to cancel this interview.

MATTHEWS: That would be my loss senator.

MILLER: You're hopeless. I wish I was over there. In fact, I wish that we lived in the day--

MATTHEWS: I gotta warn you, we're in a tough part of town over here. But I do recommend you come over, because I like you. If a Republican senator broke ranks and came over and spoke to the Democrats, would you respect him?

MILLER: Yes, Of course I would. I've seen that happen from time to time.

MATTHEWS: What did Jim Jeffords say to you? Jim Jeffords of Vermont switched parties after getting elected--

MILLER: If you're going to ask a question--

MATTHEWS: Well it's a tough question, it takes a few words.

MILLER: Get out of my face! If you're going to ask me a question, step back and let me answer. I wish we lived in the day when you could challenge a person to a duel .Now that would be pretty good. But don't pull that kind of stuff on me like you did that young lady when you had her there browbeating her to death.

MATTHEWS: (in cross talk) Let me tell you, she was suggesting that John Kerry purposely shot himself to win a medal, and I was trying to correct the record.

MILLER: I'm not her. you get in my face, and I'm going to get back in your face. And the only reason you're doing it is because you're standing way over there in Herald square.

The UNC K-E Kids Rally: One Person Responds

2004-09-01T23:13:00.000-04:00

We had a reader write-in with a few thoughts about the visit by Vanessa Kerry, Cate Edwards and Alexander Heinz visit to UNC. His words, unedited...

I'm sorry to those of y’all who worked on the Kerry/Edwards daughter event yesterday, but I thought it was horrible.

I don't understand why after 4 days of planning there were no Kerry/Edwards signs but there. Bush supporters covered most of the camera angles with individual signs and a barnyard sign.

Most of the press coverage on the news was from other events the girls did during the day. Even the interviews I saw being shot were with Bush supporters. The excuses I heard for the poor rally were a lack of funding for Young Democrats.

Am I wrong in thinking that the campaign would have been happy to lend several hundred signs to add to visibility? Because there was no visibility. That, in addition to the difficulty people had hearing the speakers made for a lackluster rally, in which the only memorable part was where the College Repubs could be heard cheering when asked who would have a good job when they graduated.

Ahnold at the RNC....

2004-08-31T22:19:00.000-04:00

Nobel Economics Prize winner... I mean well-respected actor... I mean bodybuilder with unimpeachable ethics when it comes to controlled substances... well, anyway, Governor of California Arnold Schwarzenegger just addressed the Republican Convention in New York. Gentle readers, all four or five of you will, perhaps, forgive us for venturing from the realm of narrowly defined North Carolina politics, but we needed a break from reading our Tort Law (Subtitle: Suing People for Fun and Profit).

The main thing we want to point out is the ridiculous callousness of Conan the Barbarian's "Economic girly men" comment. The transcript will probably be available here soon. Setting aside the flippant tone of this post thus far, textile workers in North Carolina who have their jobs shipped out are not "economic girly men." Nor are steel workers in Michigan or West Virginia, nor are those employed by small businesses who don't have healthcare, and nor are the millions who aren't being provided with the training they need to transition to a services/information based economy, and so have left the workforce.

Mr. Freeze accuses us of economic pessimism, and thus implies that he and the President are economic optimists. If ignoring the fact that economic hardship exists in this country and exists to a greater degree under his administration than in the previous one is what passes for optimism in the President's lexicon, we are happy to cede the term to him.

However, if optimism is about looking at the economic situation in America and knowing that we can do better, and if its about having faith that the working and middle classes can, given the chance, live better lives than the ones they are living now, and if its about wanting to give those people the leadership they need to get that chance, we suggest an alternative.

Blogging the Bowles Event Live!!!

2004-08-30T19:23:00.000-04:00

We're here, it's 7:23, and the room is starting to fill. There are 400 seats laid out, and I'd estimate that 250 of them have warm, enthusiastic bodies in them. The reason more people aren't sitting is because they are busy paying dues in order to join the Young Democrats.

Update II

Now, its 7:31. And I'd say we're at capacity. Justin Guillory, President of YD - UNC has taken the stage, and folks are starting to quiet down.

Update III

And Guillory is speaking, and the crowd is pumped. I dont see a single Republican --- so it looks like no protests tonight. Every time Justin pauses, the crowd claps. Doesn't matter what he says. That's kinda funny.

Update IV

Time is officially 7:35, and folks are standing in the back. There's not a seat left.

Update V

Meg Scott, the Secretary of YD - UNC has taken the podium, and unfortunately, its a little bit tall. That's ok though...

Update VI

Gotta close the laptop because Erskine is standing directly over my shoulder, and I think it's gotta violate journalistic integrity to have the man you're writing about read your posts before you make them...

Update VII

*Breathes sigh of relief* He's gone off to shake other peoples' hands.

Update VIII

It's now 7:41. Tom Jensen, chair of Student for Bowles, is talking about students getting involved! He's talking about keeping folks pretty active until November. That's exciting. And he's just made a joke about sounding like Howard Dean --- people laughed, but I think it fell a little bit flat.

Update IX

Time 7:45 --- Erskine's on the stage. He's a lot more comfortable with this group than he was two years ago. Best story so far? He said he had a fellow recognize him today. Erskine asked, "Well, who am I?" Guy replied, "You're the weatherman!"

Update X

Time 7:47 --- Erskine tells the story about his Uncle Sam and the obituary his wife had printed. He tells it at every event I've ever attended. Good to know some things don't change!

Update XI

Time 7:49 -- This is Erskine's seventh event today.

Update XII

Time 7:50 -- Erskine's talking about his plan for the state. Every single part of his platform is available to be downloaded on his webpage. Go here, look for the Issues page and follow the link. There are PDF files that explain how every part of his plan will work, how much it will cost, and how he will pay for it without raising taxes.

Update XIV

Time 7:54 -- Erskine's actually talking about policy now. Speech so far is really economy focused.

Update XV

Time 7:56 -- "We have the greatest health care system in the world, but we have the worst health care delivery man can concieve."

Update XVI

Time 7:57 -- I'm just going to slide into analysis for a minute here. I've seen Erskine speak live five times now. But I haven't seem him this focused before. I haven't seen him this energetic before. He's breaking up his speech with anecdotes about people he's met on the campaign trail -- a little girl named Katie, a truck driver from Greensboro -- It's really working.

Update XVII

Time 8:00 -- "I think this new prescription drug plan is crazy. It makes me so mad I could spit."

Update XVIII

Time 8:01 -- "I don't think any of those ideas I've just talked about are Republican ideas or Democrat ideas. I think they're good ideas."

Update XIX

Time 8:03 -- "I've got an opponent in this race. I hope you never learn his name. This opponent of mine goes around this state bragging about how he votes with this administration 96% of the time. I'm gonna tell you what: I'm not going to do that. But when we have a Democrat administration, I'm not going to vote with them 96% of the time either. We don't need a rubber stamp."

Update XX

Time 8:04 -- And he's done. But questions are next.

Update XXI

Question One: Would you support a tobacco buyout with FDA regulations.
Answer: "Yes, I support FDA regulation, but I tell you what, I want this tobacco buyout to happen with or without regulation but that's what so many rural families need.

Question Two: What can be done for education in tight budget times.
Answer Two: "We can be much smarter in controlling these unfunded federal mandates...I'm sure most of you have heard of this program called 'No Child Left Behind.' I'm not a fan of it....You've gotta give people the resources to get the job done..."

Question Three: What about Bill Frist's obscure use of parlimentary tactics...how important is a Democratic majority in preserving the civility and integrity in the Senate?"
Answer Three: I'll tell you what, if we don't win North Carolina, we have no chance of winning back the Senate -- That's how important this seat is. But I think we want civility in the Senate and ideals

Question Four: How proud to be a Democrat are you?
Answer Four: "My daddy told 'I don't care what church you raise your kids in as long as you raise them as Democrats.' People tell me 'You brag about being the White House chief of staff but you don't brag about which administration it was in. ' I tell them, 'What adminstration do you think I worked in?' ... I'm very proud to be a Democrat."

Question Five: Where do you stand on military benefits?
Answer Five: "I think the thing that galls me is that the current members of the House voted to give themselves a pay raise but voted against giving our military a pay raise."

Time 8:13 "Thank you all very much. I'm glad to be here."

BLUE NC EXCLUSIVE!!!! MUST CREDIT BLUE NC!!!

2004-08-30T13:08:00.000-04:00

Sorry for the headline. But I've always wanted to do that.

We (and by we, I mean myself) am going to be blogging NC Democratic Senate candidate Erskine Bowles visit to UNC's campus tonight LIVE. Show starts at 7:30, so be sure to check it out!

Matt

NYT: Abolish the Electoral College

2004-08-29T23:31:00.000-04:00

The New York Times wrote an absolutely breathless editorial today. The conclusion? The Electoral College needs to go.

Four years ago, I spoke to a civic organization in my hometown about the need to preserve the Electoral College.

Today, the editorial board of the New York Times admitted that they were wrong in once supporting the College, and it's a really strong argument.

I've always thought the Electoral College protects voters in states like North Carolina from getting overwhelmed by voters in big states with dense metropolitan areas.

But more and more, it seems that the Electoral College harms minorities in every state. Until recently, it seemed like being a Democrat in North Carolina didn't make one bit of difference. Right now, I'm cautiously optimistic that my vote my count for something in this presidential election.

But with the no EC and with the statistical seperation between presidential nominees being nonexistant, the popular vote is actually a better protector of my rights as a minority.

Anyhow, go read the edit. It'll probably be a hundred years before the Times admits a mistake again.

Buildling Expectations...

2004-08-29T13:49:00.000-04:00

In 2000, just before the first Presidential Debate, there were probably three people in the country who expected Governor George W. Bush to hold his own in each of the debates against Vice President Al Gore. One of those people was the President himself, and those other two folks were his closest advisors, Karl Rove and Karen Hughes.

And the funny thing about it is this: the Republicans kept telling the world that Al Gore was going to win. They kept saying "Al Gore is a master debater, and the Governor will make his points, but keep in mind that Al Gore is an incredible debater." The Gore camp wasn't about to deny their candidate was an incredible debater, well-versed on policy and incredibly articulate. And the media, of course, picked up on this and continued to repeat it. By the time the debate began, anyone who'd watched the news would have been surprised to see Governor Bush form coherent sentences or prevent himself from drooling on camera.

Of course that's not what happened. Al Gore did a great job, but George W. Bush held his own. And because expectations were so low, everyone thought that the Governor wiped the floor with the Vice President.

Lowering expectations: it's a well-documented strategy that now President Bush's people have used time and time again. They love to tell their audiences that President Bush is a common man, someone who isn't used to high-falutin' language or numbers or facts. Then when W comes out and seems half-way credible, they claim victory.

Well, someone from John Kerry's camp is paying attention.

I know a lot of you watched the Daily Show last week when Mr. Kerry made his appearance. Most of the back and forth made very little difference. But one thing that he said stood out. Just before the end of the show, John Kerry told Jon Stewart, "The president has won every debate he's ever had," Kerry said. "He beat Ann Richards. He beat Al Gore. So, he's a good debater."

Looks like John Kerry is trying to build expectations back up again, and that's both an uncommonly wise and uncommonly deft strategy from this campaign...

Flavaville Follow-up

2004-08-29T00:22:00.000-04:00

Following up on the news that Rep. Alex Warner will switch to the dark side, the News and Observer reported in Under the Dome on Thursday that Warner will be unable to run as a Republican against freshman Representative Rick Glazier, who beat him in the Democratic Primary for House District 45. That is because the rightful heir to the GOP nomination, Robert Lawrence, refused to step aside.

According to the article, Warner also declined to run against Senator Tony Rand, saying, "As important as Tony Rand is in his position as Rules chairman for the Senate, his expertise in the Senate and his success in that environment, why in the world would anyone want to change that picture? He not only delivers for his county, but he delivers for this geographic area."

The cynic in us asks, 'Know what else Senator Rand delivers? Tons of money. And votes.' The cynic in us also wonders if Representative Warner regrets saying all those nice things about Mr. Lawrence selling himself short last week...

NC-11: Keever pulls within margin of error

2004-08-28T20:19:00.000-04:00

Stephen Yellin at The Stakeholder reports that a new poll from Dem. pollsters at The Feldman Group shows Patsy Keever only down by three points to incumbent Rep. Charles Taylor in the 11th District. This is at least four days old, but I hadn't seen it anywhere.

Taylor: 49
Keever: 46
Undecided/other: 5
MoE: 4.4

Yellin also includes some of the better analysis I've seen.

NC-11 is located in the Blue Ridge Mountains of the state (in the western section), and includes the city of Asheville, a liberal oasis in a conservative, rural swathe of land. Despite this, the district is quite winnable for John Kerry due to heavy job losses in the district, and this is one reason why Keever, a Buncombe County Commissioner and a retired teacher, can win.

Another reason is Taylor's weakness as an incumbent-he's garnered just 55% in the last two elections against the same opponent, despite GOP tides in the area in both years. He's recently come under heavy fire for a banking scandal that occurred in his company (he's another Congressman, Inc.), and a brand-new poll from The Feldman Group (D) confirms his vulnerability. In a head-to-head poll, without attacks or biographies, Taylor leads by just 49-46 over Keever. In addition, the poll shows Kerry virtually tied with Bush in the district as well,
removing any coattails for Taylor.

Keever is probably our best pickup opportunity in the state, and can use all the help she can get.

If you can, give her some help here.

We're fighting back...

2004-08-28T14:43:00.001-04:00

Literally. I'm serious. Never let it be said that we Democrats are afraid of standing up for ourselves. Just watch the video.

*EDITORS NOTE: We don't approve of punching Bush-Cheney supporters. In almost every case, such action is irresponsible and unlikely to win support to our cause. That's something we all have to keep in mind, no matter how much personal satisfaction it might deliver.

John Edwards --- Superstar

2004-08-28T14:37:00.000-04:00

The New York Times carries a really good portrait of John Edwards. The conclusion? The rest of the world is starting to learn what we in North Carolina have known for awhile --- namely that JRE is a helluva politician. But the really interesting thing to me was the explaination of how Edwards is campaigning in his role as the Vice Presidential candidate --- a job generally reserved for hatchetmen, slash-and-burn party hacks, and general, all-around bomb throwers --- without compromising his optimism or faith in the American people.

The best part?

"But Mr. Edwards's natural style is not the cutlass of Richard M. Nixon or the stiletto of Bob Dole. Instead, he excels at snatching an opportunity, weaving his own life's history into his speeches and capitalizing on endearing moments."

Oh, and then, there's this:

"Mr. Edwards generally sticks to his message, assailing the Bush administration on Iraq, the economy, health care, a tax system that Democrats say favors the rich. He often does a half-dozen local television interviews in a row, answering mostly the same questions. Somehow, he sounds as though he is answering each question for the first time. "

Definitely worth a read!

Women's Rally for Kerry-Edwards!

2004-08-23T12:24:00.000-04:00

This Thursday, August 26, the North Carolina office for the Kerry-Edwards Campaign is having a rally at the Bicentennial Plaza, just outside of the NC Museum of History, in Raleigh at 5:00.

I'm sick of the GOP thinking this state is going to be an easy victory for President Bush, and this is a great chance to send notice to everyone that this simply will not be the case.

If you're interested or need directions please let me know!

A Little Action on the Side

2004-08-20T12:05:00.000-04:00

I've got a guest post going at OrangePolitics.org.

Seems that Bob Dumas, the host of G105's morning "Showgram" is organizing a Heterosexual Pride Parade in Chapel Hill. Not exactly on our normal political radar screen, but well within bounds of the current cultural debate surrounding gay-marriage and the climate it provokes.

BREAKING NEWS --- Rep. Warner to switch to Republican Party

2004-08-20T10:23:00.000-04:00

Big news out of Fayetteville as long time Democratic Representative Alex Warner is expected to announce that he will switch parties and join the Republicans in a press conference today at noon.

In July, Warner lost a hard-fought primary against freshman Democratic legislator Rick Glazier. There is speculation that Warner is switching parties in order to attempt a rematch for the November general election.

Acccording to the Fayetteville Observer, "Republican 45th District House candidate Robert Lawrence said Thursday that the state Republican Party has asked him to not run so that Warner could step in as a Republican. Lawrence said he would consider it."

Many speculate that Warner could steal the support of conservative Democrats away from Rep. Glazier while mobilizing the district's Republican base. In that scenario, Warner has a very good chance of winning back the competitive district.

But Warner doesn't seem so sure. He told the paper that "Lawrence is selling himself short."

"'He stands a pretty good chance of beating Rick Glazier in November himself,' Warner said. Republicans already have about 36 percent to 37 percent of the vote, Warner said, and he could add the conservative Democrats who backed Warner in the primary."

We will continue to follow this situation, and provide updates as they become available.

Winston-Salem Journal--Foxx beats Robinson in 5th District runoff

2004-08-18T10:46:00.000-04:00

The Winston-Salem Journal says that, "The expensive and explosive fight among Republicans hoping to succeed Richard Burr in the 5th Congressional District ended last night, with state Sen. Virginia Foxx easily defeating Winston-Salem City Council Member Vernon Robinson."

Foxx will face Democrat Jim Harrell Jr. in the general election in November.

We at this blog have said lots about how crazy Vernon Robinson's politics are, but our relative silence concerning Sen. Foxx doesn't mean that her policies make sense.

Some of you may remember Sen. Foxx from her appearance on the Daily Show with John Stewart when correspondent Mo Rocca was sent to Chapel Hill to cover the controversy surrounding the summer reading book, Approaching the Qu'ran.

The web-archive of the telecast is no longer available, but I can assure you that Sen. Foxx told Mo Roccan (though I paraphrase) that she was sure "terrorists are glad that Carolina freshmen are reading that book."

Sen. Foxx simply does not belong in Washington, DC.

Early numbers from Journalnow.com

2004-08-17T21:18:00.000-04:00

The Winston-Salem Journal is reporting that Foxx has an early lead.

North Carolina polls closed at 7:30 tonight, and early results show Virginia Foxx leading in the 5th Congressional District race.

Foxx, a state senator, has 60 percent of the vote as of 8:35 p.m., and Vernon Robinson, a Winston-Salem City Councilman, has 40 percent, according to the State Board of Elections.

In Forsyth County, Foxx is slightly ahead with 50.41 percent of the vote. Robinson has 49.59 percent, with 11 out of 66 precincts reporting.

And by early I mean reeeal early.

They're also showing a 55-45 lead for June Atkinson over Marshall Stewart in the Democratic runoff for state superintendent.

SurveyUSA: Bowles 50, Burr 42

2004-08-16T23:20:00.000-04:00

SurveyUSA just came out with a poll that's all around a little less cheery for Dems. than last week's N&O poll.

Bush: 51, Kerry 45

Easley: 51, Ballantine: 44

Bowles: 50, Burr: 42

Of interest:

Households earning less than $40K/Yr. split ticket and vote for GOP Bush at top of ticket and Dems. Bowles & Easley down-ticket. ... Easley up 13 in Triangle, candidates tied elsewhere.

In contrast, a poll conducted last week by the N&O, WRAL and WUNC gives the following numbers:

Bush/Cheney: 48, Kerry/Edwards: 45

Easley 51, Ballantine 35

Bowles: 47, Burr 39

NC:5 - Playing on your fears

2004-08-16T22:56:00.000-04:00

Tomorrow's runoff election ends the debacle that was the 5th District Republican primary, and the conclusion will come as either another embarrassing loss for Vernon Robinson or another few years of embarrassing representation for North Carolina.

Robinson's latest lunacy? This piece of work reported by the AP. Only a short while after the arrest of Kamran Akhtar, the Pakistani who was found videotaping the skyline in Charlotte (and several other cities in the region), Robinson uses the scary episode to bully his would-be constituency once again.

Robinson's ad shows a picture of Akhtar. In the ad, an announcer says: "This is Pakistani terrorist Kamran Akhtar. He got arrested videotaping targets in Charlotte, North Carolina. He came here illegally, across our Mexican border."
Then Robinson speaks. "I'm Vernon Robinson and I approve this message because Akhtar didn't come here to live the American dream. He came here to kill you."

Cute.

Even better: the resignation with which Tom Foxx, husband and campaign manager to Robinson's runoff opponent Virginia Foxx, responds to the ad. Sigh, Vernon's at it again.

"That's his tactic with everything he does," said Tom Foxx, Foxx's husband and campaign manager. "If the guy was a terrorist and there was proof of that, that'd be one thing. But you can't make the giant leap."

A Safe Seat Gets Even Safer

2004-08-12T12:48:00.000-04:00

According to the News and Observer, Kim James, a Republican from Chapel Hill has withdrawn from her race against State Senator Ellie Kinnaird D-Orange.

" 'I have family obligations that are not going to permit me to run right now,' James, 37, a mother and UNC-Chapel Hill student, said Wednesday.

She sent a letter last week informing Orange County election officials of her decision. They forwarded her note to state elections officials, who acknowledged the withdrawal this week.

Kinnaird is seeking a fifth two-year term in the Senate. As legislative districts have been redrawn several times during her tenure, she often finds herself campaigning in new territory. This is the first time the district has included Orange and Person counties."

The North Carolina Republican Party has said they plan to enter a new candidate. If they find such a person, he or she will have to file one week from today--75 days before the election--to appear on the ballot.

And now...the rest of the story...

2004-08-11T15:10:00.000-04:00

In yesterday's Under the Dome, the lead item talks about this year's absences in the state legislature. The N&O rightly points out that Senator David Weinstein D-Lumberton missed twelve or more days in this year's session. What the column neglects to mention is that Senator Weinstein missed those days because his wife had been diagnosed with cancer. Sadly, she passed away in June.

To me, that's a perfectly justifiable reason for leaving session. Missing twelve days of work when the person you love is diagnosed with a terminal illness is in not dishonorable.

Unfortunately, yesterday's Under the Dome read a bit like a high school detention slip sent home to your parents. The implication was that Weinstein and all the other legislators mentioned in the column were failing to do their proscribed duties, that they were letting down their constituents. I can't speak for the others, but with Senator Weinstein, that's simply not the case. Above all else right now, eh deserves our patience and our respect. Too bad the N&O didn't take the time to look into the story more thoroughly.

****UPDATE****

Turns out, that the N&O did take the time to investigate the story, twenty-four hours after the original column ran. I have to admit, their correction of the record was tastefully done. But still, that was a fairly sloppily handled bit of journalism.

More Interesting Stuff In NC-5

2004-08-10T17:03:00.000-04:00

Months ago, Bob Dole's vice presidential candidate, Jack Kemp, endorsed Vernon Robinson for the House of Representatives. Then, just weeks before the election, he announced that he had withdrawn his support and asked his readers to vote for Ed Broyhill instead, saying, "Robinson was running a very negative and aggressive anti-immigration campaign, which I believe is contrary to the core values of the party of Lincoln."

Just last week, everyone's favorite paleoconservative, Pat Buchannan fired back with his column in The American Conservative. He says, "Jack believes being pro-illegal is good politics."

A little further down, he gets to the heart of his argument, "Since Bush took office, his free-trade policies have produced a net loss of 2.6 million manufacturing jobs, one in every six in the USA. The textile and apparel industries in the Carolinas have been especially hard hit. These jobs have historically been the access ramp to the American Dream for blacks, Hispanics, single moms, and working poor. Is Vernon Robinson wrong to want to stop shipping these jobs off to China? "

That's funny because the crux of Jack Kemp's argument for withdrawing his endorsement was specific to Robinson's anti-immigration policies. But for the purpose of this race, a war with words between two pundits doesn't really matter.

Well, where exactly does Mr. Robinson stand on immigration, you ask?

Here is what Mr. Robinson has to say:

Our immigration policy is nuts. Over 400,000 foreign students have overstayed their student visas, and we simply have no idea where they are! Over thirty thousand of these are from Muslim countries, and they’ve simply disappeared.

Most of those missing Muslims pose no threat to America, of course, but it only takes a handful of would-be “martyrs” to cause real problems, as we learned on September 11th, 2001.

The mastermind of the Twin Towers/Pentagon attack, Khalid Shaik Mohammed (whom we have captured), recently told U.S. officials that Al Qaeda is planning to carry out future attacks, including the firebombing of the Washington Metrorail, by smuggling terrorists, equipment, and toxic chemicals over our unguarded Mexican border!

We have troops in 120 countries around the world (including half a million in Iraq and Afghanistan), but we won’t defend our own borders with Mexico and Canada -- even after our mortal enemies tell us in advance that that is how they are going to hit us next!

With the communist North Koreans bragging that they will sell a nuclear bomb to Osama Bin Laden, why in the world do we refuse to defend our borders? Remember, a ragtag band of these Arab misfits used public transportation and a handful of box-cutters to kill more Americans in the 2001 World Trade Center attack than the Japanese killed at Pearl Harbor.

The next time they come at us, they may be armed with more than box cutters. How much more damage could an organized terrorist do with a nuclear bomb that he simply drove across the Mexican desert into San Luis, Arizona one night, like a common drug smuggler?

The threat is real. Vehicles routinely crash the border gates at the Otay Mesa ports of entry near San Diego, a few miles from an international airport in Mexico. Occasionally these gatecrashing vehicles get through. We have no idea who is in them, or what their cargo is. I will make it my personal mission in Congress to put an end to this madness. Enough is enough...

Part of the reason these immigration problems go unchecked is that there are now so many immigrants in the country that too many Republicans and virtually all Democrats actually compete to see who can pander to them the most. Washington Mayor Anthony Williams has even argued that these illegal aliens should have the right to vote! That’s where I draw the line.

This pandering is what created the explosion of so-called “sanctuary cities.” A sanctuary city is one whose liberal city council has forbidden its police officers to report illegal aliens to the I.N.S. so they can be deported.

New York City repealed its sanctuary resolution after four illegal aliens raped an American woman there last December. Three of the four had been picked up by the police before and should have been deported, but because of the sanctuary resolution, the cops had never informed the I.N.S. that the aliens were in custody.

My alma mater, the United States Air Force Academy, recently found it had 23 illegal aliens working for it – more than the number that carried out the September 11 terrorist attacks. But these illegal aliens were actually working for a military service academy!

Juan Hernandez, the head of the “Mexican Ministry for Mexicans Living in the United States” makes no bones about his intentions. He says he wants to increase the flow of Mexicans into the United States so as to turn our culture and influence American policy toward Mexico. He told Congressman Tancredo that we are not really “two [separate] countries; it’s just a region.” That offends me greatly.

These are not racist observations – these immigration problems threaten our national security, our fiscal security, and our national culture and identity.

Strange that most of the September 11th hijackers were legal immigrants in the United States on student visas and that most of immigrants to the United States, legal or illegal, aren't terrorists and harbor no aspirations for becoming martyrs. Strange that none of them sought refuge in North Carolina. Strange that Robinson singles out immigrants from Muslim countries when most illegal aliens aren't from Arab states in particular, countries where a majority of citizens practice Islam in general, or even nations that harbor terrorists who seek the violent overthrow of the American government of any stripe. Turns out that many of the groups that publically profess to seek the violent overthrow of the United States government actually live in the (get ready for this) United States. And don't doubt their sincerity. Ask the people of Oklahoma City if you don't believe me.

Edwardses backtrack to repay debt

2004-08-10T15:17:00.000-04:00

Here's a great story in the N&O.

The Edwards family gave up a day of campaigning with John Kerry in New Mexico to hold a rally in Kansas--a state that is locked into the red column.

Of course, it was Elizabeth Edwards' idea. Apparently, a dedicated crowd of supporters gathered around the train tracks in Kansas on Friday to wave at the Democratic candidates as they went through. The train didn't stop however, and rather than disappoint the several hundred people hoping to see the Johns, Mrs. E made a promise that her family would be back.

For almost anyone else, this makes little or no sense. You don't spend time or money in places you can't win. But thanks to Mrs. E, what would otherwise be a puzzling day of campaigning is now going to pay off. Several thousand people showed up in the pouring rain to hear the vice presidential nominee. Oh, and lest I forget to mention it, the press showed up too. I'm willing to bet the news coverage of the event alone will make up for any lost time or cost. But if the campaign reaches out to Kansas, I'm willing to bet the Democrats of that state will come to the Kerry website and make a donation.

A wild ride in NC-5

2004-08-07T11:48:00.000-04:00

Vernon Robinson: "Our ability to raise money shows how strongly our message resonates with the people of the 5th District."

Out-of-area cash fuels Robinson's fund-raising

According to the Winston-Salem Journal, candidate Vernon Robinson raised $307,000 during July, compared to the paltry $38,000 raised by state Sen. Virginia Foxx, Robinson's runoff opponent for the Republican nomination.

"During the reporting period, Robinson received more than 400 contributions from donors who have given at least $200 during the primary campaign. Nineteen of those donors live in the district.

"Over the same period, Foxx received 43 contributions from donors who have given at least $200. Thirty-three of those came from within the district."

In addition, reports filed between July 29 and Aug. 6 listing contributions of more than $1,000 received by the candidates show Robinson raised $34,610 from 12 contributors, all out of district. Foxx raised $6,500 from four donors, two of whom live in the district.

Robinson's higher profile outside the 5th District probably has a lot to do with his frequent shenanigans: dropping off a 1-ton cement monument of the 10 Commandments outside Winston-Salem City Hall, sponsoring offensive anti-immigrant radio ads and blasting his opponents at every turn, among others. After all, as his own campaign brags, "Jesse Helms is back! And this time, he's black!"

The article fails to mention Democratic Surry County Commissioner Jim Harrell's fundraising, although he has consistently trailed far behind his GOP counterparts in the heavily Republican district. Opensecrets.org reports that Harrell has raised almost $165,000 in the race, with roughly $77,000 on hand. Compare that to Robinson's $1,981,000 raised, and his $273,109 on hand. Foxx raised $629,277 and has $146,516 on hand.

Foxx has been endorsed by several of the other GOP candidates since the primary, and most mainstream Repubs. should fall behind her rather than Robinson, who has a tendency to produce some pretty outrageous quotes and headlines. But Robinson, who came in first in the primary and obviously has a lead in the cash race, has a big head start.

The question is this: If Robinson wins the nomination in the Aug. 17 runoff, does Jim Harrell suddenly have a chance? The district's conservative and Harrell's way behind in name ID and cash, but if the Republican nominee is so far off the beaten path, could turnout be dampened enough that Harrell might keep it close? Is it worth trying to flood Harrell with money for the general election if he's facing Robinson?

Black says Kerry will help economy

2004-08-06T16:06:00.000-04:00

The News and Observer reports that Speaker Jim Black and Virginia Governor Mark Warner organized a conference call to tell reporters that President Bush's econonic and trade policies have hurt North Carolina's economy.

Two interesting things to point out:

First, writer Rob Christensen notes that when a journalist asked Speaker Black about John Edwards' economic record in North Carolina, Black, "seemed stumped." That may well be the truth, but Christensen doesn't fully explain why he got that impression.

Second, I find it strange that NC Governor Mike Easley continues to avoid public support of the Kerry-Edwards campaign. He didn't come to the rally in Raleigh, he didn't attend the Democratic National Convention, and now, Speaker Black is sitting in on conference calls for the campaign with governors from other states. It's not about John Edwards--Governor Easley stumped for the North Carolina Senator in Iowa. I have to wonder if it's association with the Democratic Presidential candidate that Easley is trying to avoid.

Blue North Carolina

Early Voting ---- Breaking Records

Janet Cowell rocking web site, blog

Ballantine-crushing and political ads

Keever up by two!!!

NC-5: Winston-Salem Journal pulls quick one, endorses Harrell!

"Time for a change", says Charlotte Observer

Winston-Salem Journal declines to endorse Bush

N&O endorses Bowles

BlueNC slacks off.

Richard Burr says 'No' to farmers.

NC-5: A potential upset?

Burr's Wearing Them Rainbows...

Slams of the Non-Rhetorical Variety

Weekend Preview:

Bowles-Burr race tightening

NC-11: Keever needs help

Feeble attempt at a (somewhat) open thread

Quote of the Day:

North Carolina Quote of the Day:

(National) Quote of the Day:

The Offensive Continues...

What are we doing, anyway?

This leaves me feeling profoundly sad..

Quote of the Day:

Quote of the Day

"This war is a powder keg. It could take the price of a barrel to US $100"

NEEDED: TRANSLATION OF GROVER NORQUIST

Gotta Love the NYT Edit Board...

Quote of the Day:

NC-8: Troutman working webroots campaign

Quote of the Day

Falsehood in Forwards...

'Steel Magnolias'

I don't think we can deny it anymore...

Good Ol' Bush Wisdom

Woes in the Queen City

Unbelievable!

Bounce? I don't see no stinkin' bounce

Charlotte Observer: 'Election `ground war' wants you'

First Local Race Blog Ad

Kerry's chances in the Old North State

Good news from Survey USA

Luebke's Big Idea

Mending Fences...

I think its safe to say that Zell Miller is off President Carter's Christmas card list...

Bill Clinton's 42, as in pounds gained if you eat there

***BREAKING NEWS***

Big Pimpin in the Big Apple

The Greatest Interview In The History of Television...

The UNC K-E Kids Rally: One Person Responds

Ahnold at the RNC....

Blogging the Bowles Event Live!!!

BLUE NC EXCLUSIVE!!!! MUST CREDIT BLUE NC!!!

NYT: Abolish the Electoral College

Buildling Expectations...

Flavaville Follow-up

NC-11: Keever pulls within margin of error

We're fighting back...

John Edwards --- Superstar

Women's Rally for Kerry-Edwards!

A Little Action on the Side

BREAKING NEWS --- Rep. Warner to switch to Republican Party

Winston-Salem Journal--Foxx beats Robinson in 5th District runoff

Early numbers from Journalnow.com

SurveyUSA: Bowles 50, Burr 42

NC:5 - Playing on your fears

A Safe Seat Gets Even Safer

And now...the rest of the story...

More Interesting Stuff In NC-5

Edwardses backtrack to repay debt

A wild ride in NC-5

Black says Kerry will help economy

BREAKING NEWS